Sudan's Ongoing Civil War and Humanitarian Catastrophe

An estimated 33.7 million people – around two thirds of the population – are expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2026. More than 20 million are displaced, either internally or as refugees in neighbouring countries. The conflict erupted in April 2023 following a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), plunging the country into a civil war that has spread from the capital Khartoum to Darfur, Kordofan and other regions. The fighting has devastated infrastructure, fractured state institutions and left civilians exposed to widespread violence, displacement and deprivation. Repeated ceasefire efforts have failed, and large swathes of the country remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors due to insecurity, bureaucratic constraints and ongoing hostilities. Sudan war leaves millions hungry and displaced as health system collapses. The war has triggered one of the world’s largest displacement crises, with over 12 million people forced from their homes since fighting erupted nearly three years ago. The United Nations children’s agency UNICEF warns that one in five children in Sudan will suffer from severe acute malnutrition this year. The ongoing conflict has led to the collapse of the health system, with only 40 per cent of health facilities functioning. Cholera outbreaks and other diseases are spreading rapidly. Humanitarian needs are immense, but funding is critically low. The UN and partners require $4.2 billion for 2026, but as of early January, only a fraction has been pledged. Access remains a major challenge, with aid convoys attacked and warehouses looted. Multilateral efforts, including Jeddah talks and IGAD mediation, have stalled, underscoring the need for renewed international pressure on both SAF and RSF to protect civilians and allow aid delivery. Global solidarity is essential to avert famine and support recovery through coordinated UN-led responses.

Unfortunately, 2026 is unlikely to get easier for Sudan and its people, and the war will likely rage on. And while President Trump prides himself on deal-making, Sudan stands between war and an imposed peace. The humanitarian situation has become catastrophic, especially after the October conquest of el-Fashir, where the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have only now allowed minimal relief to enter. The geographic expansion of the conflict and the use of sophisticated drones in areas far from traditional frontlines demonstrate the war’s expansion that threatens to dismantle the Sudanese state. Instead of moving toward a humanitarian ceasefire declared by the Quad in September—the grouping of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States that is supposed to help resolve the conflict—the civil war has only intensified. Neither the SAF nor the RSF appears ready to compromise. The RSF still believes it can take the remainder of Kordofan and push toward Khartoum. “Sudan will not accept a truce or a ceasefire so long as the rebel militia remains on any inch of the country,” al-Burhan said in his December visit to Ankara. Perpetual Conflict: In the near term, there are no signs that the conflict will end anytime soon. Front lines continue to shift back and forth. Even if the army receives additional support from Turkiye, Egypt, and, potentially, Pakistan, it still needs ground forces to retake the territory it has lost. This exposes key weaknesses on both sides. Both the SAF and the RSF employ fighters with their own interests. For example, the SAF-aligned Islamist Al-Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade forms a core part of the army but is not a formal unit. Similarly, the RSF comprises several tribal groups. This constellation of actors makes continued conflict the most likely scenario throughout 2026, prioritizing Sudanese sovereignty and rejection of RSF as illegitimate rebels backed by foreign powers like UAE.

The RSF is targeting ethnic African minorities for extermination and SAF is blocking aid access to large swathes of the country. War crimes are being committed by both sides. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): The country’s official military, including the army, air force, and navy. Rapid Support Forces (RSF): A paramilitary group formed by a previous dictatorship. Both sides failed to eliminate each other’s leadership and violence spiraled into a nationwide crisis. Police units, intelligence services, local militias, and some rebel groups from past conflicts have taken sides. The RSF is also recruiting foreign mercenaries from across the Sahel and receiving weaponry from the United Arab Emirates. Why Are Sudan’s Warring Factions Fighting? The military and RSF were once allies. That began to change in October 2021 after they overthrow a civilian-led reform government. Tensions rose rapidly between both sides after the coup. RSF commander Mohamed “Hemeti” Dagalo sees himself as Sudan’s next dictator, while SAF generals believe they are the rightful rulers. In mid-2025, SAF launched major offensives into central and south-central Sudan, recapturing the capital city of Khartoum and expanding their control to El-Obied. The RSF has since ground the army’s advance to a halt in North Kordofan, captured the last SAF stronghold in West Kordofan, and has pushed into limited parts of South Kordofan. SAF’s long supply lines and ongoing fuel shortages has weakened the army’s ability to continue advancing, while the RSF is now operating closer to their main bases with tighter supply lines. Neither side is capable of securing an outright victory. Meanwhile, it’s the Sudanese people —trapped between bombs, drone strikes, food blockades, and targeted brutality— who continue to suffer most. This armed conflict is just as much a war on the Sudanese people as it is between rival generals. The human toll is staggering: ethnic targeting, child recruitment, sexual violence by RSF on minorities, SAF aid blockades leaving communities starving.